Among many various philosophies Bill Belichick has often repeated over the years involves the notion that people shouldn’t make important decisions in the immediate aftermath of an NFL season. The suddenness of the end can sometimes lead to emotional actions that shouldn’t be made in haste, and therefore sometimes lead to bad choices.
When Belichick talks in these terms he’s usually referring to veteran players who may be mulling retirement, and even coaches looking to move on from personnel after a disappointing defeat.
The Patriots will have plenty of tough decisions to make in the offseason, and we’ll have plenty of time to discuss them in detail as the days, weeks and months move forward toward the start of the 2022 league year in mid-March. But there are also some rather obvious issues that time will do very little to change, and therefore we’ll get right to business and take a look.
Watching Saturday night’s 47-17 demolition in Orchard Park left no doubt about the current hierarchy in the AFC East. The Bills proved worthy of the crown they’ve now worn two straight seasons, and Josh Allen emphatically cemented his status as the top dog in the division. More importantly for New England, Allen provided a final element of proof that the Patriots defense will need to figure out how to deal with him soon if they want to compete.
There were myriad issues on defense Saturday night not the least of which was a banged-up secondary that was without Jalen Mills and saw Kyle Dugger playing with a club around his injured hand. But those players were in the lineup the day after Christmas and the Bills didn’t punt in that game either.
In fact, you’d have to go back to the 13-minute mark of the third quarter of the Patriots Week 12 win in Buffalo to find Bills punter Matt Haack because he wasn’t seen for almost 10 full quarters after that. Allen’s mastery of the Patriots defense was striking in many ways but what really stood out was the seeming effortless nature of the performance. Not only did the Bills not punt; they never even came close.
In racking up seven touchdown drives in seven possessions, Buffalo faced a grand total of six third downs. Average distance needed: 2.3 yards. Average distanced gained: 6.8 yards. Only once, a third-and-4 from the Patriots 16 that Allen picked up with a 5-yard run, did the Patriots even threaten to come up with a stop.
The main reason: speed. The Patriots defenders appeared paralyzed at times when Allen was in the clear. He darted inside Matthew Judon and ran away from Ja’Whaun Bentley. He dodged veterans and bought time under control, realizing he was under much pressure to make plays. The defensive backs played off and allowed easy completions underneath. And when they threatened to take that away, Allen hit them with deep shots behind the defense.
New England simply couldn’t keep up, and that’s not a problem that will magically disappear. The age on defense is not a new topic. Thirtysomethings Devin McCourty, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, Adrian Phillips (he turns 30 in March) and Lawrence Guy all played significant roles in 2021 and expecting any of those players to improve at this stage would be foolish. McCourty, Hightower and Collins are all free agents as well, so there will be changes regardless. Belichick will need to find a way to improve the team speed if he expects to slow down the Bills attack.
Even if that’s the case, he also will need to add some to the offense if he intends to keep up in games like Saturday’s. What the disappointing 1-4 stretch drive proved is how tenuous the run-the-ball, play defense, don’t-fall-behind strategy is. It worked against bad teams but it’s no coincidence that the Patriots went 3-8 against opponents with winning records, and that includes the win in Buffalo in hurricane-like conditions.
It’s too hard to rely on playing every game in your preferred style. The lack of explosiveness on offense made two-score comebacks highly unlikely, and few could have felt much confidence in the first quarter when the Bills immediately jumped out to 14-0 lead in the first quarter given how the previous four weeks unfolded.
Mac Jones showed promise in his rookie season, but he also showed some flaws. He’s not the type of gunslinger who will consistently jam passes into tight windows while leading furious comebacks. He’s more of the methodical type, content to take what’s there while leading time-consuming drives. Again, great when you’re ahead; not so much when you’re chasing. That’s where a dynamic playmaker would help the cause. Someone who can take the short throws, make tacklers miss and turn it into a big play.
That type of speed was sorely lacking for the Patriots in 2021, on both sides of the ball, and finding some will be a top priority.
